PR - SUSTAINABLE LAND VALUES AND PRICE PREMIUMS FOR NORTH AMERICAN FARMLAND

Abstract:

This paper analyses current farmland prices in five US states and five Canadian provinces to assess whether and to what extent there are current price premiums for “irrational exuberance” and non-farm influences such as urbanization, hobby farms, commercial development and other non-farm uses. It appears that the farmland market in North America is in a boom period, showing significant premiums for irrational exuberance. If interest rates continue to be low and commodity prices return to higher levels, these premiums could get even larger in the next few years. However, if inflation and interest rates rise while commodity prices remain lower, we may see a significant farmland price correction.

Keywords: farmland price premiums, irrational exuberance, non-farm price premium