Reducing Budget Risk By Using Probabilities

This paper emphasises the importance of budgeting for a family run firm. It concentrates on the inadequacy of the typical budget forecast that is shown to firm owners and lenders. This original budget is changed to a useful indicator of the firm’s future by incorporating risk, using probabilities and a decision tree. Without this incorporation the firm can misallocate its anticipated net income between family salary, firm re-investment and debt reduction. The final budget, adjusted to the individual firm’s risk calculations, produces a weighted net income. This number is a more realistic one for allocating salary, investment and principal.